Spring weather forecast for Cape Cod: What does the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict?

We all know that Cape Codders are as tough as beef jerky. They face the rigors of winter with a shrug and a smile, doing what needs to be done, deftly adjusting the long johns and lowering the earflaps. But this winter was a beast! Don’t we all deserve a nice spring?

And so, we launched a Harwich Conservation Trust (HCT) spring forecast investigation to figure out if this season’s weather will be balmy or crummy. It is fair to say that Cape Cod springs are not known for inspiring poets (or seedlings), but maybe things will be different this year.

Sparing no expense, we consulted the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the U.S. Climate Research Center and the National Weather Service. We also checked in with Cape gardening guru, C.L. Fornari to get some tips for spring planting times. Grab your barometers and let’s go!

Spring forecast from the Old Farmer’s Almanac

In today’s hurly-burly world, where constant change is the only currency, it’s good to know that the Old Farmer’s Almanac is still cooking up old-timey goodness. Continuously published since 1792, the almanac is packed with gardening tips, recipes, astronomical data and, of course, weather forecasts.

Legend has it that the almanac’s secret formula for predicting weather is stored in an old tin box at their headquarters in Dublin, N.H. Here’s what the almanac says about how they come up with their forecasts: “We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.”

Three disciplines are combined to make their long-range predictions: solar science, climatology and meteorology. The Old Farmer’s Almanac does issue this caveat, however: ” Like all forecasters, we have not yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, though our results are often very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.”

For spring weather prediction purposes, Cape Cod falls into the almanac’s Atlantic Corridor region. And their forecast goes like this: “From Boston to Richmond, temperatures will be warmer than usual, with the northern region expected to be 3°F above average in May. Rainfall will be below normal in April and normal in May.”

Spring thoughts from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces weekly, monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks for the United States. This information is used by farmers to help make decisions on planting, harvesting and water management, as well as by energy companies to anticipate future heating and cooling demands.

For the months of April, May and June 2026, the CPC outlook indicates that Cape Cod is likely to experience normal temperature and precipitation levels. This doesn’t give us much to go on, although much of the rest of the country is trending toward warmer than usual temperatures during the spring.

The CPC also has cool interpretations of historic weather data. We were immediately drawn to an intriguing map of the country, showing mean (average) temperatures from April through June, using data from 1991 to 2020. This is calculated by averaging the daily high and low temperatures.

These results indicate that, yep, Cape Cod, Nantucket and a small slice of Berkshire County are cooler during the spring than the rest of Massachusetts. The “cool kids” average between 50 and 55 degrees, while the rest of the state comes in at 55 to 60 degrees. That might help explain that odd feeling of driving off-Cape on a spring day, when our trees are still bare, only to encounter trees with leaves as we travel inland.

Why are Cape Cod springs cooler than the rest of the state?

If you want to blame someone or something for Cape Cod’s generally chilly springs, take a ride to the beach. Alight from your car, stride onto the sand and shake your fist at the sea. “The Cape and Islands are surrounded by ocean,” said Emily McMinn, National Weather Service at the Boston/Norton office. “As we come out of winter, ocean temperatures are still quite low.”

That “cold bank” tends to keep Cape Cod cooler than inland locations, especially when the wind is in play. McMinn said ocean temperatures just offshore are still around 40 degrees.

But before you launch salty language at the sea for suppressing spring, it is good to remember that once we get to the hot days of summer, the ocean’s cooling effect takes the sting out of heat waves, particularly with the magic of the refreshing sea breeze.

In the garden

All these spring forecasts and outlooks are nice to think about, but the rubber hits the road when folks make gardening and planting decisions. Given the cool conditions of the average Cape Cod spring, we figured it was essential to check in with Cape gardening guru C.L. Fornari, a beacon of wisdom for growers of things.

“The main thing that we on the Cape need to remember is not to let our eagerness dampen our good sense or what we’ve learned from experience,” wrote Fornari. “Planting too early doesn’t give plants a head start. But if you plant later, once the air and soil are warmer, plants grow quickly and within a couple of weeks they catch up to anything planted earlier. Here on the Cape, we have cold spring winds as well, and these are hard on young plants, especially if those young plants were raised indoors or in a greenhouse.”

Fornari said that soil temperature is hugely important when it comes to planting times, and provided a super-handy chart from the University of California Cooperative Extension that shows the optimum soil temperature for a wide variety of crops. You can see that chart by clicking here.

And for those of us who dabble in tomatoes, and might be tempted to get them in the ground at the first opportunity, Fornari provided this key advice: “I would never plant young tomato plants outside if the night temperatures are falling down to 50 degrees. These heat-loving plants can get shocked and sometimes slow their growth to such an extent that they take a while to grow out of it, even if the temperatures become warmer.”

So, what have we learned from our in-depth investigation into spring weather on Cape Cod? Someone is raising his hand back there: why it’s good old Ralph Waldo Emerson, famous poet, essayist and lecturer! OK, Ralph, how about summing up how Cape Codders should approach our sometimes-challenging springs with one of your famous quotes?

Ralph cleared his throat. “Adopt the pace of nature: her secret is patience,” he opined. Sounds like good advice!

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